환율변동과 우리나라 외항선사의 수익성에 관한 실증연구

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of exchange rates volatility on Korean shipping firm's performance during the period of 2002~2013 using 55 firms. In order to examine the change of the operating income to sales of shipping companies according to exchange rates fluctuation, non-operating profit and loss were excluded in this study.

Company's profitability measured by the operating income to sales is used as a dependent variable and the exchange rate fluctuation is employed as a major independent variable. Utilizing panel data on Korean shipping companies, the impact of exchange rates fluctuation on the profit of shipping companies will be empirically examined.

The important findings of this thesis are as follows.

Firstly, this study reveals that the operation performances of shipping companies was improved according to the appreciation of Korean Won/US dollar exchange rates between 2002 and 2013 and during the post-global financial crisis period(2008~2013). These results were in line with the findings of several other studies regarding the manufacturing enterprises.

Secondly, it is found that the findings during the pre-global financial crisis period(2002~2007) are different from the results of the whole period and post-global financial crisis period. This different result could be explained by super-cycle in shipping industry. In the super-cycle period(2003~the first half of 2008), despite of the fall of Korean Won/US dollar exchange rates, operating profit of Korean shipping companies was increased continuously.

Lastly, the coefficient of seaborne trade(SBT) which is one of the explanatory variables is found to be significant. This could be interpreted as a result that the company's profitability is improved by the increasing in SBT. Additionally, both tonnage(TON) and total debt/total asset(DEBT) are also significant with showing negative signs. This could be explained by the increasing in the SBT and DEBT to have made the profitability of the company decrease. However, during the pre-global financial crisis period, the coefficient of TON showed a positive sign. This might be explained that in spite of the increasing of the tonnage, the operating profit of the shipping companies has been increased consistently in this period.