효율적 해상교통관제를 위한 의사결정지원 모델 개발에 관한 연구

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to proposes a quantitative standard to support decision making supporting so that VTS operator can provide optimal information for efficient maritime traffic control. To achieve this purpose, the following research questions were posed;

First, under what circumstances should the VTS operator begin control? Second, is there any way to effectively use the VHF communication channel to avoid congestion? Third, is there any way to use efficient waterways in a situation where safety is guaranteed? Fourth, can't VTS operator quickly identify a failure vessel?

To respond to these questions, Three types of data (marine traffic surveys, VHF communication, marine accidents) were investigated and analyzed.

The findings of this study are as follows;

First, Busan North Port VHF communication analysis confirmed that the probability of controlling vessels with a risk level of 5.0 or higher by the PARK model per unit time in the control area was based on the Poisson distribution. Through this, it was possible to predict the time interval for controlling the vessel at future risk 5.0, which can help the VTS operator to make the decision on the timing of the time communication. and a relatively dangerous zone could be derived by performing spatial analysis and PARK model risk assessment using marine traffic survey data near Busan New Port. This can assist VTS operator in making decisions about when to communicate spatially.

Second, quantitative analysis of VHF communication status in Busan North Port using queuing theory and three ways to reduce traffic congestion for safe and efficient maritime traffic management. Each element of the queue theory is the increase of communication channels, the elimination of passing reports, and the reduction of basic ship traffic information.

Third. as a basic step to design the minimum speed for the efficient operation of the route in the VTS area, the impact on the waiting time of the ship to approach the route when the minimum speed was limited was analyzed. The simulation was designed using the data from the Busan North Port, and the results showed that the latency and the speed limit had a negative relationship. In other words, the higher the speed limit, the lower the waiting time. In addition, safety distance and waiting time were positively related, and traffic volume and waiting time were positively positive.

Forth, based on the AIS data of the actual accident ship, made a model that can identify the accidents of the not under command ships including the engine failure and the steering failure that occur most frequently in Korea's waters. In addition, it was applied to the Busan North Port VTS area, and the ratio of the current speed to the average speed was the most important factor to determine the failure. However, it was difficult to distinguish ships in anchorages, docks, and pilot station, and further studies should be conducted. The result of this study will contribute to the VTS operator to decide quantitatively and ship operator also will be provided with the same service under same circumstances. However, although this study aimed at the port VTS, if it is extended to the coastal VTS, it can be developed into a model that can cover the entire sea area of ​​Korea.