상선 해기사 수급 예측과 인력부족 진단 및 대응 분석

Abstract

The role of marine officer who manages and controls vessels to ensure safe navigation and generate transportation profits is a critical factor in determining the competitiveness of shipping companies. In response to the changes in the maritime industry, such as the advent of innovative ships (smart ships), stricter regulation and policy, and fierce cost competition due to high volume of shipments, retaining talented officer has been considered as a core factor. However, due to the peculiarity of shipping labor that is isolated from land for a certain period, the number of marine officers is gradually decreasing. This study explored the current state of the marine officers so as to cope with the issues of workforce caused by the decrease in the labor of merchant ships, predicted future demand and supply of labors in various ways, and the results were compared and analyzed. According to the result, the study analyzed how the countermeasures to improve the manpower shortage will affect the demand and supply of manpower in the future. The demand for manpower of marine officer is forecasted using various methods such as the simple average method using geometric mean, linear and polynomial models of trend analysis, and Auto-Regression(AR), Moving Average(MA), AR+MA(ARMA), and Auto Regression Integrated Moving Average(ARIMA) models of time series analysis based on data between year 2003 and year 2020. In order to increase the objectivity of the forecasting, the results from each method were compared. As a result of forecasting the demand for marine officer in overseas service ships, the result of the simple average method using trend analysis and the linear regression model showed the increase from 6,241 in year 2020 to 11,856 and 9,853 in year 2040 in respectively. The polynomial regression model is considered to be inappropriate because it represents an unrealistic figure in long-term prediction. The predicted figures of the four models of the time series analysis presented the slight increase at a similar level and then stagnation. The demand of marine officer in coastwise ships slightly increases from 6,241 in year 2020, to 7,887 and 7,786 in year 2040 in the simple average method and linear model of trend analysis respectively while the prediction of polynomial models showed inadequate figure. The predicted figure of all time series models showed slight increase until year 2023 and then stagnation as well. Demand for overseas employed marine office will continue to decrease from 2,062 in year 2020 to 809 in year 2040 in the case of the simple average method. On the other hand, the predicted figure of linear model and polynomial models of trend analysis showed dramatic fluctuation, which was not adequate to be applied. In the MA model of time series analysis, the figures slightly decreased and then stagnated while those of the other three models all increased slightly to a similar level and then remained stagnant. The comparative analysis was conducted between the result of demand forecasting for marine office and the actual performance figure from year 2015 to year 2020, to identify the degree to which the forecast results coincide with the actual scale of manpower. As a result of the analysis, the simple average method of trend analysis showed little difference with the actuality, and the AR, ARMA, and ARIMA models of time series analysis showed similar level of differences whereas the difference of the MA model was slightly higher. In the forecasts of the demand for merchant marine officers, when there is a change as well as a large increase or decrease in the actual manpower, the error is large and such error would be delayed and later on reflected on the forecast. Therefore, for the short-term forecast of marine officer manpower, it is appropriate to apply the demand forecast. While for the long-term forecast, various forecasting methods should be applied. The results should be then comparatively evaluated and applied within appropriate categories. On the other hand, it was found that supply or marine officer of overseas merchant ships will decrease to 5,085 in year 2040 and those of coastwise ships will decrease to 973 according to forecasting analysis based on the manpower scale considering number of retirees and promotions, and new entrants by position and age, the turnover rate in year 2020. As a result of comparing the forecasts of manpower demand and supply of merchant ship marine officers, it was predicted that the problem of manpower shortage in overseas and coastwise ships will be seriously raised in the future. As a measure to respond to the problem of manpower shortage according to the forecast of demand and supply for merchant mariner officers, we analyzed the extent to which the shortage of manpower was reduced due to the introduction of autonomous ships on the demand side and the implementation of the plan to expand the supply of marine officers (Preferential wages for long-term sailors, income tax exemption, employment incentives, and improvement of seafarer occupational awareness, training of new employee, and improvement of boarding rate) on the supply side. The results of time series model analysis of changes in the demand and supply of manpower for merchant marine officers due to the introduction of autonomous ships and the expansion of supply, and consequent shortage of manpower showed that the shortage issue of marine officers could not be completely addressed. In particular, it was predicted that the problem of shortage of manpower for domestic merchant ships would not be resolved and worse still, expected to deteriorate at very concerning level. Since it is essential to secure and maintain Korean marine officers for the stable transport volume of coastal freight and secure mobilized fleets during wartime, innovative measures to expand the supply of marine officers should be implemented urgently to prevent the collapse of the coastwise shipping industry by shortage of manpower. This study comprehensively analyzed and predicted the demand for manpower of marine officers by applying simple average method using geometric mean, linear and polynomial models of trend analysis, and AR, MA, ARMA, and ARIMA models of time series analysis. The purpose of this study is to improve the objectivity and reliability of prediction by comparing and evaluating the prediction results of different methods. In addition, the forecast accuracy of demand forecasting methods was evaluated by comparing the forecasted demand and actually measured figure. The study presents the problems in the application of the demand forecasting method and proposes appropriate utilization methods. Furthermore, a scientific and systematic forecasting method considering the factors affecting marine officer supply was suggested by presenting changes in supply of marine office according to the changes in workforce composition (number of retirees and promotions, and new entrants by position and age, the turnover rate) for each year by using Markov analysis. Lastly, this study examined the feasibility and effect of plan for supply and demand of marine officer in quantitative way by analyzing the impact of the introduction of autonomous vessel and the realistic supply expansion plan on the reduction of the manpower shortage. Based on the result, it was suggested that proactive measures should be urgently prepared to solve the problem of seaman manpower shortage as the problem will become more serious in the future. This is study is likely to be assessed as very timely research emphasizing the necessity of maintaining Korean marine officer in a situation where the number of marine officers in merchant ships is decreasing.