우리나라 수리조선의 경쟁력 및 경제성 평가에 관한 연구

Abstract

Recently, the demand of ship repair and shipbuilding is increasing and the market is expanding because of the introduction of mega ships and strict regulation which enforces the installment of scrubber and Ballast Water Treatment System to prevent ocean pollution. This study analyses the necessity of the large-size shipyard and explores competitiveness factors of it. Furthermore, the competitiveness is evaluated and the economic feasibility of building and operation of shipyard is examined. In the response of increasing demand for ship repair and shipbuilding, the state of national and international market was first analyzed. This paper identified the risk innovative ship building technology as well as expenditure outflow into overseas due to the absence of large shipyard. On top of that, the issues of economic loss of shipping industry due to the suspension of overseas ship repair and shipbuilding were also studied. Eventually, we suggest the construction of large shipyard as the solution. It is investigated that more than 320 billion won is leaked abroad since 98.7% of large ships with 30,000 GT or more managed by national shipping companies and ship management companies has used foreign repair yard. The cost of moving ships to overseas repair shipyards was also found to be 43.7 billion won or more. In addition, as 46% of LNG/LPG ships, 100% of PCTC and 80% of container ships build in Korean shipyard are repaired at Chinese repair yard, the problem of leakage of core technology of high value-added ships is emerging. Recently, due to the COVID_19 pandemic, more than 200 megaships (based on year 2020) were restricted from entering to Chinese shipyards, causing delay in ship inspections and repair. Consequently, national shipping companies had borne additional costs. As a measure to solve the problems caused by the absence of a large repair shipyard in Korea, a plan to build and operate a large repair shipyard in Busan Port was proposed. As of year 2019, a total of 26,547 foreign ships had entered Busan Port where is geographically linked with the shipbuilding equipment industry and shipyards in Geoje and Ulsan. The advancement of port logistics industry such as ship supplies and tug/pilot industry of Busan port which is in line with the demand for repair shipbuilding and supply chain infrastructure, is the critical factor which makes Busan port as the most qualified location for building a large shiprepairyard. Reflecting these locational advantages, the Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries has designated a repair shipyard in the new port of Busan and is promoting a private investment project to build a large repair shipyard. The ship repair yard which will be located in ship repair and building complex of Busan new port, is planned to be built on a site of 295,700㎡ including 1 dry dock and 1 floating dock to provide inspection, repair, and remodeling services for large ships of GT 30,000 tons or more. Based on previous literatures on industrial competitiveness and the competitiveness of ship building and repair industries, the determinant of the competitiveness of repair shipyards was set: moving distance, dock and quay wall facilities, repair parts supply, connectivity of port logistics infrastructure such as ship supplies, repair period (on time delivery), repair technology, repair cost, repair service quality, safety of entry and departure, protection of advanced technology, environmental friendly ship repair, customer relationship, cooperative relationship, support of government. The importance of the factors and the competitiveness of Busan port shipyard are evaluated by AHP survey analysis. As a result of AHP analysis of the determining factors of the competitiveness of the repairing shipyard, the importance of the factors was found in the order of arrival and departure safety, repair technology, dock and wharf facilities, repair cost, repair period (on time delivery), and repair parts supply. The result showed that shipping liners and ship management companies consider infrastructure, technology and quality of ship repair and building as the most significant factors in selecting repair shipyards. Moving distance, repair service quality, repair parts supply, arrival and departure safety, repair technology, dock and quay wall facilities, and repair period (on time delivery) were identified as key factors in the AHP analysis for competitiveness of the Busan Port repair shipyard to be built in the future. The factor of travel distance was the most important factor for ships calling to Busan port as the ships have to use the ship repair yard immediately at the time of arrival. The competitiveness factors that shipping companies consider important in determining repair shipyards showed similar trend to competitiveness of Busan Port repair shipyards. In order to analyze the feasibility of the construction and operation of the Busan Port repair shipyard from an economic perspective, the construction and operation benefits and costs were measured and assessed from the perspective of industrial and national economic. Accordingly, cost-benefit analysis, which is widely applied in various fields as an economical evaluation method, is used for analysis, and net present value analysis is applied to evaluate the validity of long-term investment decisions regarding facility at the Busan Port repair shipyard. As a result of the analysis, the net present value of the Busan Port repair shipyard construction and operation investment project was KRW 435.6 billion, and the internal rate of return was 9.8%, higher than the social discount rate (4.5%), and the cost-benefit ratio (B/C) was high at 1.167, proving economic feasibility. The break-even point analysis was conducted to examine the adequacy of repair demand and profitability of the Busan Port repair yard. The B/C ratio was found to be 1.0 when 45.8 ships were repaired annually during the project period. It is estimated that the demand of repair shipyards was sufficiently ensured, however, project should be carried out in the form of public investment applying a social discount rate as profits are not realized by return on operating capital of private companies. As a result of the study, the necessity and economic feasibility of the Busan Port repair shipyard are sufficiently ensured, and the competitiveness assessment was highly positive. From a practical point of view, this study is likely to provide the logical feasibility of the construction of repair shipyard at the Busan port and the theoretical basis for project promotion. Based on the results of this study, if the Busan Port repair shipyard is successfully built and operated, it will meet the demand for repair and remodeling of domestic large ships preventing the leakage of ship repair costs and high-tech ship technology. Furthermore, it will contribute to enhancing the international status and competitiveness of Busan port as a hub port in Northeast Asia by creating a synergy effect with shipping, shipbuilding, and port logistics. Lastly, it will have positive impact on industrial growth through revitalizing the local economy by creating forward and backward linkages in the shipbuilding equipment industry and port logistics industry in Busan.