첨두시간 최대 해상교통량 기반 교통용량 평가 모델 개발에 관한 연구

Abstract

The current Marine traffic capacity is divided into the area of ​​the occupied area of ​​the ship by the product of the distance by the average speed of the ship using the route width and the route. However, this evaluation model is based on the data and simulation results observed in the coastal waters of Japan in the 1960s and 1970s, and it does not reflect the recent trend of change in the port of traffic, which is remarkably large, high speed, and exclusive. Therefore, it is necessary to review the new marine traffic capacity evaluation method so that it can find appropriate countermeasures for these changes at this time. The traffic capacity of other transportation fields such as roads, railways, and aviation are examined in this study in addition to the marine field and examined the significant factors that can be applied to the marine field. In other areas of transportation, it was considered to evaluate traffic capacity by reflecting the maximum traffic volume at the peak-time, characteristics of each means of transportation, and service level explaining the state of traffic. It was suggested that such the maximum traffic volume at the peak-time should be reflected in the marine transportation field. The main research method is to select the point where the traffic volume of the route is expected to run most in order to reflect the actual marine traffic status of the ship for peak time, and to analyze the location information data of the 7-day ship automatic identification device (AIS) with he maximum traffic volume at the peak-time of the port in the last year. In addition, a survey was conducted on domestic and overseas related literature and marine transportation experts, and analyzed the physical variables of ship characteristics in traffic volume. Through this analysis, this study developed a new marine traffic capacity evaluation model based on the maximum traffic volume at the peak-time and ship characteristics, and the entry and exit port coefficients, which were not reflected in the existing evaluation model, and verified the suitability of the evaluation model by applying it to major ports. In addition to the variables reviewed in this study, there is a limit to reflect various factors affecting marine traffic capacity such as ship, traffic environment, natural environment, navigation support, etc., but it is meaningful in that it fully reflects the maximum traffic volume of actual route when evaluating marine traffic capacity. In addition, the marine traffic capacity evaluation model developed in this study will be used as a meaningful data for the marine traffic environment evaluation model such as marine traffic congestion evaluation and marine traffic flow evaluation, and service level evaluation standard explaining the flow status of the route.