An analysis of the Competition & Development between Ports in Korea and in Shanghai Using the Differential Equation Models

Abstract

The dissertation mainly focuses on the study of port container transshipment. The several models were developed in the research to analyze the competition and development of container transshipment. Following the two branch lines of the study two aspects of contents are paid attention to for establishing models and forecasting. Then the two branch lines were incorporated into the same target results.

In the first branch line the purpose of the study is to establish models to analyze the competition among hub and spoke ports, their development especially in Northeast Asia between Korean ports and Shanghai ports in China, and to forecast the T/S amount of Korean ports under the condition of competition mainly from Shanghai ports in China.

In the first branch line study the differential equations are analyzed and applied to establish competition and development models among hub and spoke ports in Northeast Asia mainly based on Korea. And some econometric models are established too by analyzing a huge amount of data about container transportation on the three main routes in the world. Incorporating the econometric models into the differential equations, the differential equations are solved.

The differential equations’ approach has been opted combined with econometric analysis after a deliberate pre-feasibility study. The econometric models in the dissertation are established independently. A combination of a quantitative and a strategic analysis for the port competition and their development by applying the differential equations and econometric model analysis is a creative study firstly after the extensive analysis about the hub and spoke ports around Northeast Asia focused on Korea.

In the second branch line study the purpose is to setup the relationship models between T/S and trades focused on Korean ports. By analyzing the relationship between T/S containers and corresponding trades with other countries (or regions) in Northeast Asia based on Korea, the comprehensive model for the relationship is established to analyze and predict relationships between trade and transshipment under the analysis of the data collected.

The quantitative approach encompasses a detailed analysis of the container flow mainly to and from the principal ports on Northeast Asia- North America, in terms of the T/S containers and transpacific containers to and from the relative ports on the route. Furthermore, a model-based approach is taken to predict future T/S containers’ levels. Additionally, the segment T/S markets based on Korean for Chinese regions are dealt with.

As a whole, we focus on the phenomenon of port competition and development around Northeast Asia from the perspective of the strategic development of the relevant players. An academic approach will reveal strengths and weaknesses of hub and spoke ports’ development. The models of the study provide a foundation to make decisions for shipping companies and ports in selecting hub and spoke ports in a relative long dynamic process.