고속도로 진출입램프 접속부상의 지체예측모형 구축에 관한 연구

Abstract

Construction of Delay Predictive Models

on Freeway Ramp Junctions

Today freeway is experiencing a severe congestion with incoming or outgoing traffic through freeway ramps during the peak periods. Thus, the purpose of this study is to identify the traffic characteristics, analyze the relationships between the traffic characteristics and finally construct the delay predictive models on the ramp junctions of freeway with 70 mph speed limit.

From the traffic analyses, and model construction and verification for delay prediction on the ramp junctions of freeway, the following results were obtained :

ⅰ) Traffic flow showed a big difference depending on the time periods. Especially, more traffic flows were concentrated on the freeway junctions in the morning peak period when compared with the afternoon peak period.

ⅱ) The occupancy also showed a big difference depending on the time periods, and the downstream occupancy(Od) was especially shown to have a higher explanatory power for the delay predictive model construction on the ramp junctions of freeway.

ⅲ) The delay-occupancy curve showed a remarkable shift based on the occupancies observed : Od < 9% and Od ≥ 9%. Especially, volume and occupancy were shown to be highly explanatory for delay prediction on the ramp junctions of freeway under Od ≥ 9%, but lowly for delay prediction on the ramp junctions of freeway under Od < 9%. Rather, the driver characteristics or transportation conditions around the freeway were thought to be a little higher explanatory for the delay prediction under Od < 9%.

ⅳ) Integrated delay predictive models showed a higher explanatory power in the morning peak period, but a lower explanatory power in the non-peak periods.