國籍 LNG船 運賃構造에 관한 實證硏究: 船舶金融 및 運賃分析 中心으로

Abstract

Korea Gas Corporation(KOGAS) was established by the Korean Government in 1983. It has been the nation's only importer of liquefied natural gas(LNG) since then. Import volumes have been increasing steadily to make KOGAS the largest LNG importer in the world. Until now, most areas of the Korean peninsula have enjoyed the benefits of natural gas supply with KOGAS' efforts to provide convenient and clean energy to the nation.

The Korean Government, however, has been initiating reforms aimed at breaking down the monopolistic structure of the energy industries and making them more competitive. In doing so, the government hopes to enhance the efficiency of the industries and strengthen their market functions. The mainstays of these reforms are the privatization of public corporations and deregulation.

In coping with the challenges KOGAS does not seem to view them as obstacles to be overcome, but as business opportunities. The Corporation wants to take a continuous leading role in improving the competitiveness of the domestic gas industry, while securing the strongest position in the gas market. A broad overview of LNG transportation accounting for a large proportion of the end-user price in Korea is significant in relating to this movement.

Integrated researches in domestic LNG transportation require an understanding of the nature of LNG, KOGAS' history and a sophisticated scheme of ship finance. It is also necessary to understand a variety of methods of analyzing costs, which to a large extent, help to comprehend the market characteristics. In terms of cost as a key element in development of transportation infrastructure featured by high investment costs, high degree of inflexibility and significant economies of scale

Y_j = -0.409 + 7.218×X_1j - 6.622×X_2j + 24.999×X_3j+ 134.949×X_4j + 2.241×X_5j + 0.22×X_6j + 0.02219×X-7j - 0.00219×X_8j

* Y_j means transportation cost.

**X_aj mean the above mentioned variables separatedly.

In relation with the Equation the standardized regression coefficients (beta coefficients), which assess the relative importance of individual variables and in which all variables are expressed on the same scale so that their direct comparison may be made, are 0.723 to the variable X_1j, -0.054, 0.118, 0.566, 0.018, 0.002, 0.199, -0.192 to each variables in sequence.

Consequently the results of the study suggest that the domestic LNG transportation cost be estimated in relation to the Equation, and that in connection with standardized regression coefficients LNG ship's contract price(variable X_1j, 0.723) be the most important factor which can play an important role in determining the level of the transportation cost. LIBOR for a repayment period(variable X_4j, 0.566) is the next to it and the others, in consecutive order, can be estimated for their separate influencing power over the cost determination according to the constants in the Equation.

The results also suggest that KOGAS and the party concerned who are interested in their LNG transportation cost, go deep into the study of the use of cost management tools and hedges against ship finance cycle moving in favor of the lenders though whether this, along with attempts to tighten up covenants, will make a significant cost impact is a matter for debate. The suitable time for this may be when cost management of operating sector, voyage and overhead sector will have reached its goal successfully, although in many respects, capital cost management tends to be all the parties' primary area of concern. Reality is that most of the parties concerned scarcely can put it out in a variety of ways for a long period due to no precedent to cover it rather than inexperience.

both anchoring a low cost business environment to KOGAS as a shipper and improving profitability for operators who are practically potential owners of LNG ships in LNG transportation here appear to be a primary goal of the parties concerned.

As for LNG, natural gas is cooled and liquefied into LNG at the temperature of approximately -162℃ at atmospheric pressure. Natural gas is condensed into about 1/600th of its volume when liquefied. LNG weighs less than one-half that of water, actually about 45% as much. LNG is odorless, colorless, non-corrosive, and non-toxic. Natural gas is composed primarily of methane (typically, at least 90%), but may also contain ethane, propane and heavier hydrocarbons. Small quantities of nitrogen, oxygen, carbon dioxide, sulfur compounds, and water may also be found in pipeline natural gas. The liquefaction process removes the oxygen, carbon dioxide, sulfur compounds, and water. The process can also be designed to purify the LNG to almost 100% methane.

In the late 1950's liquefaction of natural gas and water transport was a viable option with technology already developed at that time. Preliminary economic projections demonstrated LNG would make cheap gas available to the industrial markets.

Ever since 1986, when LNG was first introduced to Korea, the LNG imports have continued to increase to reach 14.6 million tons in 2000 - a 12.4% increase from the previous year. As stable supply of natural gas is one of the priorities of KOGAS, the corporation seeks to stabilize LNG supplies through import source diversification. Major import sources include Indonesia, Malaysia, Brunei, Qatar and Oman. Omani LNG was included for the first time in 2000 and will continue to be transported for the next 25 years. KOGAS has two LNG terminals (Pyongtaek and lnchon terminal) in operation, which transfer LNG from vessels into storage tanks and manufacture natural gas. The third LNG terminal at Tongyong, a city in the southern peninsula, is planned to be completed by the second half of 2002. Natural gas vaporized from LNG is transmitted to KOGAS customers such as city gas companies and power plants through an extensive pipeline network at high and medium pressures. As of the end of 2000, a total of 2,066 kilometers of pipelines and 122 valve stations were in operation to supply natural gas to 63 provinces and cities throughout Korea.

As of November 2001, 17 national flag LNG vessels operated by 4 domestic shipping companies are dedicated to the LNG transportation based on FOB terms for over 20 years to secure a steady and stable supply. About 600,000~1,000,000 tons of LNG are transported each year per vessel with a capacity of 135,000㎥ built by domestic shipyard.

Referring to ship financing and transportation cost, KOGAS wants ship-owners to be keen on improving competitiveness over cost factors such as, but not limited to, capital cost, voyage cost, operating cost, general overhead cost. The purpose would be for mutual prosperity and survival because the world shipping market environment becomes more unfavourable to Korean enterprises due to repeal of domestic protective measures and policies such as cargo preference and waiver system since Korea joined in WTO and OECD. Furthermore, the international rules and regulations will be strengthened and severer than before, and any breach of them will be followed with retaliation and conflicts.

Under such international and domestic circumstances, some investigation into finding out suitable ways related to ship financing arrangement with better and more favourable terms and conditions for competitive services has been fulfilled, previous to transportation cost analysis - bank loans, lease financing, equity financing and special type of ship financing scheme like K/S ship financing, Shikumisen and Mezzanine financing. Additionally other reviews were executed in significant sectors including the history of domestic shipping financing system, international and national rules and regulations, and shipping financing contract content in detail. Having investigated into and reviewed them, the key principles of shipping business and transportation cost determination were researched. Cost-plus principles can be found as the most suitable ones in accordance with these researches.

① Contract price of LNG ship between 175 and 250 million dollar,

② Proportion of equity capital between null and 10 percent,

③ LIBOR(6 month) for a construction period between 5 and 10 percent,

④ LIBOR(6 month) for a repayment period between 5 and 10 percent,

⑤ Rate of crew expense increase between 1 and 7 percent,

⑥ Rate of ship's stores and supplies increase between 2 and 8 percent,

⑦ Fuel oil(bunker) price between 120 and 180 dollar per a ton, and

⑧ Foreign exchange rate of Korea Won to US Dollar between 800 and 1,400 \/U$.

After building eight variables of the model for a laboratory analysis an originative simulator for a standard transportation cost calculating for the domestic LNG ship was initially invented to create raw data for multivariate regression analysis. With the help of the Simulator 1,100 data could be prepared and used for multivariate regression analysis for the relation between one dependent variable (transportation cost) and eight independent variables (see the above mentioned).

The results of multivariate regression analysis show that transportation cost is dependent on a specific regression equation as follows