초저금리 시대 장수리스크 감소를 위한 은퇴자산 투자대안과 배당투자 활성화에 대한 연구

Abstract

This study is motivated by the intensified longevity risk in the unprecedented ultra-low interest era, and seeks the priorities within the expert groups among the investment alternatives on an individual level by the AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) analysis method.

Primarily relying on interview investigations, the survey gathered 100 responses from the expert groups and effectively used 50 of them in its analysis. The expert groups consist of four groups whose career duties are highly relevant to financial and real assets, such as bank financial institutions (central, commercial, savings banks), non-bank financial institutions (stock exchanges, securities firms, insurance companies), relevant research institutions (retirement planning institutions, professors in related fields) and real estate specialists.

The study draws twelve investment alternatives on three levels for the sake of reducing the longevity risk. On Level 1, it sets financial asset investments and real asset investments. On Level 2, it puts savings and installment savings, stocks, insurances and pensions under financial asset investments, and real estates and movable assets under real asset investments. On Level 3, bank and non-bank savings and installment savings are put under savings and installment savings, stock investments for high dividend income and those for high capital gains under stock investments, insurance products and personal pensions under insurances and pensions, housings, lands and commercial properties under real estates, while jewels, cars and others are put under movable assets.

In regards to these twelve alternatives on three levels, the study initiates the survey that targets four expert groups, such as bank financial institutions, non-bank financial institutions, relevant research institutions and real estate specialists, in order to draw the priorities within the groups among the investment alternatives for reducing the longevity risk in the ultra-low interest rate.

Upon close analysis of priorities among the investment alternatives, the study finds that on Level 1, the priority of financial asset investments marks 0.656 and that of movable asset investments marks 0.344. This result reflects the tendency within the expert groups to increase the significance of financial assets that can easily generate cash flow, in order to reduce the intensified longevity risk in the ultra-low interest and aging era.

Among the alternatives on Level 2, the priority of insurances and pensions marks 0.502, stocks 0.262, savings and installment savings 0.236 among financial asset investments, while the priority of real estates marks 0.706 and movable assets 0.294 among real asset investments.

On Level 3, among financial asset investment alternatives, the priority of bank savings and installment savings marks 0.652, and non-bank savings and installment savings 0.348 among savings and installment savings, while the priority of stock investments for high dividend income marks 0.613 and those for high capital gains 0.387 among stock investments. That of personal (private) pensions marks 0.763 and insurances 0.237 among insurances and pensions. Again on Level 3, among real asset investment alternatives, the priority of commercial properties marks 0.409, housings 0.386 and lands 0.206 under real estates category, and the priority of jewels marks 0.523, others 0.264 and cars 0.213 under movable assets category.

Looking into comprehensive priorities of twelve investment alternatives on three levels for reducing the longevity risk, personal (private) pensions rank first (0.251), stock investments for high dividend income rank second (0.105), bank savings and installment savings rank third (0.101), commercial properties rank 4th (0.099), housings rank 5th (0.094) and insurance products rank 6th (0.067). Furthermore, stock investments for high capital gains rank 7th (0.067), non-bank savings and installment savings rank 8th (0.054), jewels rank 9th (0.053), lands rank 10th (0.050), others rank 11th(0.027) and cars rank 12th(0.021).

The result of this study can be summarized as follows.

First, on Level 1, the expert groups have valued financial assets nearly twice more than real assets in terms of setting priorities in the investment alternatives for reducing longevity risk in the ultra-low interest and aging era.

Second, on Level 2, their preferred options among financial assets, in order of priority, were: insurances and pensions, stocks, savings and installment savings. Their preferred options among real assets, in order of priority, were: real estates and movable assets.

Third, on Level 3, the first priority among financial assets was personal pensions. As the national system for providing old-age income security is deficient, the expert groups have emphasized the importance of preparing personal pensions on an individual level. The second and third were stock investments for high dividend income, and bank savings and installment savings, while the 7th and 8th were stock investments for high capital gains, and non-bank savings and installment savings. As the interest rates stay at 1-2% per year with the standard annual rate at the level of 1%, the expert groups placed emphasis on stock dividend investment with higher stability and durability in reducing longevity risk, while increasing the significance of stocks with higher profit rates, which are considered risk assets.

Furthermore, in response to the open ended questions in the additional survey, the expert groups proposed that in order to raise the rate of return in the ultra-low interest rate era, individuals cannot avoid at least partially investing their incomes in high dividend stocks, again considered risk assets. Among those, experts said that indirect investment for dividend fund with comparatively high stability and durability is more desirable than direct investment.

The expert groups also proposed an idea that in addition to executing policies that encourage the expansion of dividends on a government level to support the individuals’ effort to reduce the longevity risk, the government ought to take the lead in reforming the tax system by means such as expanding the membership and reinforcing the security level of the national pension plan, tax credit deduction and non-taxable income expansion, long-term financial product development and long-term investment benefit expansion, tax credit deduction for retirement savings and incentives for investing in assets with intermediate risk and profits, such as stock fund.

This notes that in order to reduce the longevity risk, in addition to retirement preparation on an individual level, it is vital to have supporting policies on a government level so that individuals can seek stability in their later years. Such policies include invigoration of dividend, introduction of individual savings accounts (ISA) and the reformation of tax system to provide incentives for long-term possession of stocks.

Furthermore, this study is differentiated from previous studies in the following aspects.

First, based on the survey of the expert groups (Level 1) by AHP method, the study suggests that we ought to change the household asset portfolios so that the significance of financial assets with the capacity to generate cash flow is higher than that of real assets in order to reduce the longevity risk now aggravated in the aging and ultra-low interest rate era.

Second, based on the survey of the expert groups (Level 2) by AHP method, the study proposes that in order to prevent old-age poverty due to the longevity risk and enhance the durability of retirement wealth, it is necessary to invest a part of individual assets in stocks with high risk and high return, along with insurances and pensions, and to deviate from the distribution of retirement wealth focused on savings and installment savings with almost zero interest rates.

Third, based on the survey of the expert groups (Level 3) by AHP method and the additional survey with open ended questions, the study finds that in terms of stock investment, we ought to raise the importance of investment with high dividend incomes, contrary to the tradition of focusing on investment with high capital gain. It further finds that in terms of stock dividend investment, it is advantageous to encourage indirect investment in dividend fund with higher stability and durability than direct investment with higher risk.

Fourth, through the continued research, the study proposes that the leading alternative to secure the life after retirement and reduce the longevity risk is the long-term investment in dividend fund. It further emphasizes that in order to encourage the long-term investment in dividend fund, it is necessary to increase the dividend of globally low-ranked domestic businesses, and that the government ought to actively execute supporting policies, such as tax system reformation, financial product development and non-taxable income expansion.