정기선 해운시장 공급요인과 상해운임지수 변동성간의 관계분석

Abstract

Previous studies have tried to analyze the correlation through the empirical analysis of the freight, demand and supply variables of the self-surveyed areas in the area mainly involved in the factors and variables affecting the maritime freight. However, The SCFI Comprehensive index, which is widely used in practice, is an area where researchers have not been interested.

In this regard, this dissertation first examines factors and variables affecting the freight rate of liner freight, based on the literature study and previous study, and also examines freight decision theory and Freight Index, extracts variables by demand factors, supply factors and other factors and then collected relevant databases.

This dissertation have tried to secure a weekly database or a monthly database as much as possible. Six research data were selected based on the importance and monthly database in the collected databases.

The study data are SCFI Comprehensive index, HRCI (Howe Robinson Container Index), Time charter Index, Bunker 380CST, Order book, and CNTRSHIP Fleet. Monthly time series data of variables were analyzed through Unit root test, Vector autoregressive model (VAR), Impulse response analysis and Forecast error variance decomposition.

The empirical results of this study are summarized as follows.

First, the selected research data were analyzed by time series analysis using Eviews. Second, supply variables affecting SCFI Comprehensive index are orderbook, time charter index, and CNTRSHIP Fleet.

Third, the proportion of supply variables affecting SCFI Comprehensive index, Orderbook: 2.7573%, Time charter Index: 1.5598%, CNTRSHIP Fleet: 1.1603%, HRCI: 0.8356%, Bunker: 0.0594% of the total. In other words, Oderbook had the greatest impact, while Bunker had the least impact.

Fourth, It can be used the SCFI (Comprehensive & 15 individual shipping routes) index in the weekly period and the monthly orderbook, time charter index, and CNTRSHIP Fleet, which are influential in this study, as an index to understand the trend of the ocean freight rate.