유가의 변동이 우리나라 외항선사의 수익성에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of oil prices variability on Korean outgoing shipping firm's performance from 2002 to 2015. For this research, we collected related data of 57 firms and then utilised regression modle.

Company's profitability measured by the operating income to sales is used as a dependent variable and the oil price fluctuation is employed as a major independent variable.

The important findings of this thesis are as follows.

First, this study reveals that the coefficient of oil prices in a regression model showed positive value. This result is a little different from our general expectation, that is the rise of oil price will have an impact on the decrease of income of outgoing shipping firms.

Secondly, according to the result of additional correlation with foreign exchange rate, seaborne trade(SBT), ship's spaces(SPCE) and company's total debt/total asset(DEBT), there is a negative correlation between oil prices and foreign exchange rate and DEBT. And there is positive correlation between oil prices and seaborne trade(SBT) and ship's space(SPCE).

The result for the investigation about the influence to EBIT with each variables, there is a positive correlation between oil price, foreign exchange and SBT and there is a negative correlation between SPCE and DEBT.

In addition, we analyzed the relationship between each variable and the operating profit margin before and after the global financial crisis of 2008. In the pre-crisis period (2002-2007), the EBIT margin was improved as the oil price and the exchange rate increased. Furthermore, after the global financial crisis, the negative correlation between oil prices and EBIT margin indicates that EBIT margin improves when oil prices declined.