해상운임 변동이 화주기업의 TSR 수요에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of the variations in ocean freight on demands for Trans-Siberian Railway (TSR) transport of Korean shippers. It is widely accepted that the TSR transport is faster than ocean shipping while its rate is not competitive. Therefore, the vast majority of previous research has focused on the revitalization and barriers of the TSR transportation as well as the connection method between TSR and Trans-Korean Railway (TKR) in the case of Korean-European routes. However, little academic attention has been paid to the possible association between demand for TSR transport and the price of ocean shipping, alternative transport service between Korea and Europe. In this regard, this study examines how TSR export volume to Europe has been affected by container freight rate (CCFI) over the past five years between 2017 and 2021. The panel regression analysis shows that TSR export volume to Russia is negatively associated with CCFI and demand to Europe is positively associated with CCFI. However, it shows that TSR demand to Europe has negative relationship with CCFI based on the analysis with period fixed effect. It is difficult to regard that the increase in ocean freight has an effect on the increase in TSR volume. In Europe, it is generally accepted that the CCFI increase is associated with TSR demand. However, it can be regarded that TSR shipment to Europe increased reflexively during a specific period from 2020 to 2021 due to skyrocketing ocean freight and a lack of vessel allocation caused by COVID-19.