부산항 북항 및 신항 선호도 분석

Abstract

Since the opening of Jaseongdae Port, which is Korea's first "container-exclusive" port, Busan Port has handled over 90% of the nation's container cargoes. As such, it has been a driving force for the nation's economic development and has become the logistics hub of Northeast Asia, boasting the 5th container cargo handling capacity.

Amid the rapidly changing environment, such as the excess of port mounting capacity, challenges posed by other competitor ports, and the need to excel, Busan Port has carried out a number of measures to secure its position as the logistics hub of Northeast Asia. New Port has been constructed in an attempt to enhance the freight handling capacity through the synergy effect created with the existing North Port. Since the launch of the New Port in January 2006, 3 berths were constructed, and 30 berths in total are scheduled to be constructed by 2015.

However, unlike the initial expectations, the New Port is experiencing hardship in securing freight volume, and the short-term prospect is not so bright.

Whether the initially expected synergy effect will be created and the mutual development of the New Port and the North Port will be achieved or "a war of attrition" to attract limited freight volume will be waged is in question.

Therefore, this research analyzes port allotment rate by estimating the port users' responses under a number of conditions prior to the completion and operation of the New Port. Through such effort, this paper purports to propose solutions that enable appropriate allocation of the nation's resources following the port development.

Regarding the research methodology, this dissertation uses Logit Model (LM), a probability selection function, in determining the selection between the New Port and the North Port. Also, this paper uses Stated Preference (SP) obtained through the measurement of the expression of will, such as individual decision maker's preference, opinion, and tendency toward respective options through the currently non-existing virtual parameters. This feature will distinguish this research from the existing ones.

Therefore, this research analyzes the currently non-existing variables through the analysis of literature and existing researches. Through such analysis, 3 variables--port productivity, cargo-working charge, port facility (mounting area scale, TGS)--are selected as the ultimate attribute variables. With such variables, this study carries out research on the national and foreign shipping companies and terminal operators that have offices in Busan Port whether they have intention to transfer from the North Port to the New Port in accordance with the variation rate of respective attribute value.

In general, as long as there is no absolute difference between variants, a working cargo charge is the most decisive factor to call port. However, port productivity is revealed to be the most effective variant among port users in this paper.

Therefore, to hold a competitive and dominant position or to be balanced in the mutual development of ports, it is required for the North Port and the New Port to make an utmost effort to raise and improve port productivity.