신개발기법자산에서의 석유생산감퇴곡선분석을 이용한 궁극가채량 추정 및 현금흐름분석

Abstract

Resource play has gained great attention as a result of higher oil prices and improved new technologies such as horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing. It is known to exist over a large areal expense of hydrocarbon accumulation and believed to have a lower geological and commercial development risk. To develop it, production decline curve analysis is used in the field where information lacks or immediate analysis is required.

Production decline curve analysis uses only production rate data to examine the status of production decline and forecast productivity. Arps proposed an experiential equation on the basis of the hundreds of production rate data analysis regarding the oil field. Existing production decline curve analysis is useful for the initial production, which is a deterministic technique to derive one result. However, production for a long term is change the production condition of well due to change natural or physical factors. As the production rate fluctuation leads to increase of uncertainty. For this reason the probabilistic technique is introduced to advance reliability. This method is applying reliability in order to obtain maximum and minimum values according to the statistics and to forecast production decline history and productivity.

This study used various production decline curve analysis on the characteristics of the production decline history of Resource play to estimate production behavior and assume Estimated Ultimate Recovery (EUR). In addition, cash flow analysis for the purchase and management of the wells has been carried out and sensitivity analysis has been conducted to know the impact of the variables in cash flow analysis result. Through these results will be able to apply the production rate data of various fields and bring reliable results.