유가와 해양플랜트 서비스 선박의 상관관계에 관한 연구

Abstract

Unexpected decline in oil prices since 2014 has caused cancellations and delays in ordering offshore plant projects, which have already been ordered, and are causing severe restructuring in domestic shipyards.

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the offshore plant service industry which is suggested as a countermeasure to revitalize domestic shipyards and to analyze the effect of oil price change on offshore service vessel and what kind of correlation there is.

The statistical analysis was performed by linear regression analysis and correlation analysis with SALT program. As a result of the study, firstly, the change of oil prices affects most of the bottoms of the offshore service vessel by ship type. In addition, global OSV orders are not affected by oil prices.

Second, as a result of analyzing correlation between oil prices and offshore service vessel using Pearson correlation coefficient, the Bottoms of global offshore service vessel is decreased when oil price is increased. On the contrary, when oil prices is falling, Was increased.

Third, when the oil price rises, it can be confirmed that the offshore service vessel order status, delivery status and OSV newbuilding price index are both rising.

KEY WORDS: Oil prices 유가; Linear regression analysis 선형회귀분석; Correlation analysis 상관관계분석; Bottoms 선복량(선박량); OSV 해양 지원 선박