南北和解時代에 따른 沿岸旅客航路의 活性化가 成果에 미치는 影響에 관한 硏究 = 江華北方航路를 中心으로

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to examine stimulant factor and deterrent factor in Korea's coastal passenger shipping on the basis of field data collected in order to help stimulate it and enhance its competitiveness.

The study model and study hypotheses used are illustrated as follows.

Study Model Table

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This study model has two independent variable factors divided into a number of different variables. The model has also four patterns of deterrent factor that hinder the stimulation of Korea's passenger shipping. This factor has also an impact upon the business measurement items such as the dependent variables of load factor, service level, and passenger shipping demand growth. The major dependent variables for this study which have been measured through questionnaire surveys are load factor, service level, passenger shipping demand growth, and the exchanges between South and North Korea. The load factor is the most representative measurement item for transportation industries. In addition, the service level or passenger shipping demand growth is widely used as one of the measurement items for business management.

The major deterrent factor variables this study has used consist of inflexible government regulations for ship operation, facility shortages in berthing and passenger terminals, insufficient government's financial supports such as the government-finance schemes for newbuilding projects or secondhand ship purchases, low freight level, and management inefficiencies. The major stimulant factor items which have been also adopted in this study as important variables are considered to play a big role in reducing deterrent factor value level. These dependent variables are passenger service level, load factor and passenger shipping demand growth. These two major factors have been set up as study hypotheses and a study model.

The more the stimulant factor lowers the value of deterrent factor, the higher the service level rises. These improvements will result in higher load factor and higher service demand growth and will lead to the stimulation of Korea's coastal passenger shipping business.

This study has established the following five hypotheses for relation between each different variable in order to test the feasibility of the above-said study model: (1) there will be a negative relation between the deterrent factor in Korea's coastal passenger shipping and passenger service level

(5) there will be a negative relation between the deterrent factor and the exchanges of South and North Korea. Pearson correlation analysis and multiple regression analysis have also been used to test relation between each different variable. These hypotheses have been adopted as a result of multiple regression analyses with a significance level less than0.01 level.

This study has further used field data collected through questionnaire surveys on 45 passenger service firms in Korea and 402 passengers aboard the ship who resided in the tight security areas of the western islets located north of Kwangwha Island or who had toured around the areas for pleasure.

The examination of the field data collected from the nation-wide coastal passenger service firms reveals the followings in summary.

First, the passenger load factor fell below 50% for 44 firms out of 45 surveyed. The firms were found to suffer difficulties with the freight rate-cutting competitions of passenger ships, high operation cost and low income. The 68.8% of the firms surveyed have earned freight levels below the operation cost because of the burden of high capital investment and the reduced shipping demand.

Second, vessel operation problems such as inflexible ship operation controls by the concerned authorities, uniform controls on ship operation regardless of steaming areas, and freight rate-cutting competitions between pleasure boats and ferry crafts are found to have the highest value of deterrent factor. Moreover, facility shortages consist of such variables as poor passenger terminal facilities, poor berthing facilities, and poor sea resort facilities. The average value of these variables appears to be slightly lower than that of ship operation problems but it is still considered high. The facility shortage problems suggest that it is extremely pressing to expand various facilities related with berthing, car parking, and passenger terminal for coastal passenger ferry ships.

Meantime the other deterrent factor variable is insufficient government supports in Korea's coastal passenger shipping service. This deterrent item consists of such variables as difficulties with securing vessel, unfavorable financing cost, disadvantages with the government financing scheme for newbuilding, defective Korea Shipping Law for Korea's coastal passenger shipping business, and incomplete government policy supports. These five deterrent variables are considered to be of higher value than those of the above said vessel operation problems or facility shortages. This means that it is very pressing to receive the government's favorable supports for the stimulation of Korea's coastal passenger shipping.

The last deterrent factor variable is freight rate and management problems sub-divided into five variables such as low freight rates, differential freight rates, excessive competitions, and poor managerial capability. These variables are considered by passenger shipping firms to be of higher value as deterrent factor. In addition, these four patterns of deterrent factor, namely, ship operation problems, facility shortages, insufficient government supports, and freight rate/management problems show the high positive co-relation.

Third, it is considered that the higher the values of these four variable patterns of deterrent factor rise, the lower the passenger load factor and passenger service level fall. Moreover, of the four deterrent factor variables, the ship operation problems represent the biggest negative co-relation in terms of service level and load factor. Hence the inflexible ship operation controls by the concerned authorities, the uniform control on ship operation regardless of steaming areas, and the freight rate-cutting competitions between pleasure boats and ferry crafts turn out to be of the highest deterrent factor value.

Fourth, de-regulation in ship operation controls can be sub-divided into such variables as the de-regulated controls of ship operations by the concerned authorities, the relaxed controls of ship operation in consideration of local weather condition, and the avoidance of freight rate-cutting competitions. These variables are considered to be very important for the stimulation of Korea's coastal passenger shipping. In addition, facility shortages can be dealt with by the government's financial supports for passenger terminal facilities, by the government policy supports for terminal facilities, by the government supports for the investment into berthing facilities, and by the government supports for investment into sea resort facilities. The solution of the facility shortages by the government's supports will play an important role in the revitalization of Korea's coastal passenger shipping. Also the equally important for the revitalization is considered by the passenger shipping firms to be the government's additional supports which are sub-divided into such variables as the support for vessel purchase, ship finance subsidies, the government-financed newbuilding schemes, the overhaul of Korea's Shipping Law and the government policy-supports for Korea's coastal passenger shipping.

Moreover, the settlement for freight rate/management problems is also considered very important for the stimulation of Korea's coastal passenger shipping. The exchanges between South and North Korea can be encouraged by the government supports and by the need of cruising service like the on-going Mt. Kumgang Tourist Project. This encouragement is also considered important for the promotion of Korea's coastal passenger shipping though it has a lower stimulant value.

Fifth, the examination of the impacts which the above-mentioned five variable patterns of stimulation have upon Korea's coastal passenger shipping demand growth shows that the highest demand growth can be created by the government's de-regulations, and the second highest demand growth, by the facility expansion and next in turn by the sea-land combined tours to sea resort areas respectively.

The examination of field data collected from passengers further reveals the following summary for the stimulation of Korea's coastal passenger shipping.

First, the deterrent factor is divided into the five variables such as inflexible ship operation controls by the concerned authorities, uniform controls on ship operation regardless of steaming areas, freight rate-cutting competitions between pleasure boats and ferry crafts, facility shortages in passenger terminal, and in sea resort areas. The passengers under survey consider these five variables as a very important deterrent factor hindering Korea's coastal passenger shipping service. The examination further indicates that the passengers wish to precisely schedule their tours to Korea's coastal islets and to enjoy the diverse leisure time through the well-organized marine transportation as a result of the promotion for leisure industries and the de-regulated ship operations.

Second, the stimulant factor for the passengers is divided into total seven items but basically can be divided into two groups. The first group is expanded convenient facilities for passenger terminal, the need of cruising service, contribution by cruising service, and more flexible ship operations. The second group is expanded berthing facilities for ships, the need for the open publicity of tours to sea resort areas and government policy supports. Both stimulant factor groups are considered to be far more important than deterrent factor variables. The passengers under survey are found to think very high of the above-said seven stimulant variable items to create demand growth for Korea's coastal passenger shipping.

(4) there will be a positive relation between the stimulant factor in Korea's coastal passenger shipping and the exchanges of South and North Korea

(3) there will be a positive relation between the stimulant factor in Korea's coastal passenger shipping and shipping demand growth

(2) there will be a negative relation between the deterrent factor and load factor