부정기선 운임결정요인에 관한 연구 -케이프사이즈 건화물선을 중심으로

Abstract

This paper is focused on the determinant factors of the freight rate in tramp shipping market. Tramp shipping market is generally limited to dry bulk shipping market. In the dry bulk shipping market, it is difficult to make to estimate an accurate freight rate because of too many variables and international factors all over the world. Especially, the dry bulk shipping freight rate is determinated by global demand and supply by free competitive market which causes more various and unpredictable conditions.

Even though there is the existing theory about shipping cycle in the dry bulk shipping market, it is not always applied to real freight rate.

Moreover, freight rate volatility in dry bulk shipping market has shown different aspect as different shipping market structure. It is followed by dry bulk vessel, cargo route and so on. Therefore, it is necessary to make sure the freight rate volatility more carefully by vessel size to prevent dry bulk shipping market risk.

Due to development of Chinese steel industry in 2000's, seaborne trade volume of iron ore and coal has been rapidly increased. This caused high demand of large vessel such as cape size dry bulk ship. In this point, this paper researches actual Baltic Capesize Index(BCI) and analyzes various factors which can influence on BCI.

According to the paper, researched several factors influencing on the dry bulk freight rate in demand, supply and other external factors through literature review and 7 hypotheses were made. By analysing correlation and regression analysis between independent variables and dependent variable, it can be figured out how BCI and independent variables have been influencing each other.

As a result of correlation and regression analysis between Baltic Capesize Index(BCI) and demand, supply and other external factors of capesize dry bulk ship, 3 followings are turned out.

Firstly, demand factors which include seaborne trade volume of iron ore and coal are highly related with BCI.

Secondly, supply factors such as delivery of newbuilding ships and demolition are lowly related with BCI.

Lastly, other external factors such as secondhand ship price, international bunker price and charter price are highly related with BCI.